Independent Research / February 2026

A Very Small Room

The scramble for crypto infrastructure is just beginning

Stablecoins settled $33 trillion in 2025. A handful of companies moved early. But the real wave — when every major bank, payment network, and exchange tries to buy crypto infrastructure — is just beginning. First-mover advantage is still available. This is the map.

$33T
Settled in 2025
730%
B2B YoY Growth
3.5x–90x
Valuation Range
6
Buyer Categories
$4B+
Ripple M&A in 2025
Section I

The Acceleration

Stablecoins settled $27.6 trillion in 2024, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined for the first time.[1] In 2025, that number rose to $33 trillion.[2] By November, stablecoins were processing $95 billion daily, exceeding Visa's estimated $85 billion.[3] This is not a speculative asset class anymore. It is a payments rail operating at global scale.

The business-to-business segment tells the sharper story. B2B stablecoin payments grew over 730% year-over-year in 2025, from under $100 million monthly to over $3 billion.[4] Stripe's Bridge unit alone quadrupled its volume, reaching roughly $400 billion total throughput.[5] The inflection point for enterprise adoption has passed.

"Stablecoins are room-temperature superconductors for financial services."
Patrick Collison, CEO of Stripe, October 2024

Issuer economics confirm the durability. Tether reported $10 billion in net profit for 2025, holding $141 billion in US Treasuries behind $186.5 billion of USDT in circulation.[6] Circle posted $2.7 billion in revenue and debuted on the NYSE at $31 per share, immediately surging 168% to $83.[7] PayPal's PYUSD tripled its market cap from $1.28 billion to $3.8 billion in under 90 days.[8] These are not speculative bets. These are infrastructure businesses generating institutional-grade returns.

The regulatory barrier fell in 2025. The GENIUS Act passed with bipartisan support (Senate 68-30, House 308-122) and was signed into law on July 18, 2025, establishing 1:1 reserve requirements, BSA/AML compliance, and consumer priority in insolvency.[9] In Europe, MiCA becomes fully enforceable on July 1, 2026, and firms without authorization will be shut out of the EU market.[10] On February 17, 2026, Bridge received a conditional OCC national trust bank charter, the first for a stablecoin-native company.[11]

"My goal this year is to put us on track to turn this into a new product line that has $100,000,000 of annual revenue. That's my mandate."
Crypto industry executive, January 2026

The question is no longer whether stablecoins will reshape payments infrastructure. Citi's base case projects a $1.9 trillion stablecoin market by 2030; their bull case reaches $4.0 trillion, calling stablecoins a potential "ChatGPT moment" for blockchain adoption.[12] The question now is who controls the infrastructure.

The data is overwhelming. And yet most financial institutions have not moved. The few that have — Stripe, Ripple, Coinbase — are already in position. The rest are about to start. What follows is the map of a market that is about to get very crowded.

Section II

The Deal Map

The consolidation wave began in October 2024, when Stripe paid $1.1 billion for Bridge, then the largest acquisition in the company's history.[13] Bridge was a stablecoin orchestration platform whose volume had grown 10x that year and would quadruple again in 2025. In February 2026, reports emerged that Stripe was eyeing a deal to acquire some or all of PayPal, a $43 billion target that would create the most powerful stablecoin-enabled payments infrastructure in the world.[14]

Ripple spent roughly $4 billion on acquisitions in 2025 alone: Hidden Road ($1.25 billion, multi-asset prime brokerage), GTreasury ($1.0 billion, treasury software), Rail ($200 million, B2B stablecoin payments processing over 10% of the $36 billion global market), and Standard Custody.[15][16][17] DL News projects total industry M&A will surpass the previous record of $37 billion.

Major Crypto Infrastructure M&A, 2024-2026
Date Buyer Target Price Strategic Rationale
Oct 2024 Stripe Bridge $1.1B Stablecoin orchestration; volume grew 10x in 2024, quadrupled again in 2025
Jun 2025 Robinhood Bitstamp ~$200M International crypto exchange for global expansion
Aug 2025 Coinbase Deribit $2.9B Crypto derivatives; now the global leader in options volume
Aug 2025 Ripple Rail $200M B2B stablecoin payments processing (10%+ of global market)
Oct 2025 Ripple Hidden Road $1.25B Multi-asset prime brokerage; business grew 3x post-announcement
2025 Ripple GTreasury $1.0B Treasury software integrated with stablecoin settlement
Nov 2025 Exodus Baanx + Monavate $175M Card issuance and payment processing; wallet to end-to-end payments
Jan 2026 Polygon Labs Coinme + Sequence $250M+ US money transmitter licenses (48 states) + smart wallet infrastructure
Feb 2026 Stripe PayPal (rumored) TBD $159B buyer eyeing $43B target; stablecoin payments consolidation

The valuation range tells its own story. At the high end, Bridge sold for 75-90x revenue to Stripe. In the middle, industry observers report one major acquirer self-values at roughly 12x revenue when using its own equity for deals.[18] At the low end, traditional finance buyers have acquired crypto custody businesses for as little as 3.5x revenue. The pattern is consistent: crypto-native buyers pay the highest multiples, payment networks pay mid-range premiums, and banks pay the least.

"Bridge trading at 90 or 75x on the high end, banks going to OSL for 3.5x on the lower end."
Industry observer, February 2026
Notable Capital Raises, 2025-2026
Company Event Date Valuation
Circle IPO (NYSE: CRCL) Jun 2025 $5B+
Revolut Secondary raise Nov 2025 $75B
Rain $250M raise Jan 2026 $1.95B
RedotPay $194M Series B Dec 2025 Considering $1B IPO at $4B+
BitGo IPO (NYSE) Jan 2026 ~$18/share; down 40% since
Section III

The Buyer Taxonomy

Six distinct buyer categories are pursuing crypto infrastructure acquisitions simultaneously, each with different motivations, different price sensitivities, and different urgency levels. The convergence of all six categories into the same market at the same time is what makes this moment unprecedented.

Category 1

Payment Networks

Stripe, Visa, Mastercard, Adyen, Checkout.com. Post-Bridge, every major payment network needs a stablecoin answer. Visa's stablecoin-linked card spend quadrupled year-over-year in Q4 2025, and its USDC settlement layer reached a $3.5 billion annualized run rate.[19] They will pay a premium for regulatory compliance and enterprise SLAs.

"In Q4, stablecoin-linked Visa card spend quadrupled versus a year ago."
Ryan McInerney, CEO of Visa
Category 2

Banks and Large Fintechs

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi, Klarna, Revolut. They bring massive distribution (90 million Chase mobile users alone), move slower, but deploy at scale. Goldman has "an enormous number of people" focused on tokenization and stablecoins.[20] Klarna launched KlarnaUSD despite its CEO being "historically skeptical of crypto."[21]

"The most important thing is that we are right, not first. But when we finally get our act together, we could be the biggest crypto company in the US. Because we have all the customers."
Senior executive at a major bank, February 2026
Category 3

Crypto-Native Companies

Ripple, Coinbase, Polygon, Exodus, OKX. They move fastest, pay the highest multiples, and face margin compression in their core businesses. Ripple spent $4 billion in 2025 alone. Coinbase paid $2.9 billion for Deribit. Polygon allocated $250 million for on-ramp licenses and smart wallet infrastructure.[22]

"Payments is a top two priority across the company. It is basically payments and the everything exchange."
Crypto industry executive, January 2026
Category 4

Emerging Market Champions

Remittance companies, cross-border fintechs, emerging market super-apps. Cross-border payment costs average 6.49% through traditional rails versus under 1% on stablecoin infrastructure. KPMG estimates savings of "up to 99%."[23] The global remittance market moves roughly $900 billion annually. Sub-Saharan Africa corridors still charge 8.37%.

"Stablecoin is a very important part of our strategy. It is more than a defensive mode for sure."
Cross-border payments executive, January 2026
Category 5

L1 Blockchain Foundations

Stellar, Polygon, Solana ecosystem. Blockchain foundations with large treasuries are competing aggressively for stablecoin infrastructure. They need transaction volume to justify their existence and are willing to deploy significant capital to acquire it. Some foundations have realized that without spending their treasuries on infrastructure acquisition, they risk becoming irrelevant.

"All these chains are desperate for stablecoin flows."
Board-level strategy discussion, February 2026
Category 6

Mandated-but-Searching TradFi

Derivatives exchanges, regional banks being repurposed for crypto, and traditional financial institutions with board-level mandates to "figure out crypto" but no internal expertise. They ask good questions. They move cautiously. They represent some of the largest potential deal sizes because they acquire capability wholesale.

"These clueless people that we're coming across who don't seem to know what they're doing, but really have a mandate to go figure it out. I think that's our best opportunity."
Investment banker, February 2026

The novel categories here are the last two. L1 chains and mandated TradFi institutions are not tracked by any published analysis. Their emergence as active acquirers compresses an already tight market further and faster than consensus expects.

Most of these buyers are in the early stages of engagement. Payment networks have made their first moves. Banks are in exploratory conversations. L1 chains are deploying grant capital. The mandated-but-searching TradFi institutions are still figuring out what to ask for. This is not a market that has already played out. This is a market that is just starting to form.

Section IV

The Scarcity Problem

The supply side is already shrinking, and the main wave of demand has not arrived yet. In 2024, a Corp Dev team searching for a licensed, scaled crypto infrastructure company with production-grade technology could identify perhaps 15-20 viable targets. By February 2026, at least 8-10 of those have been acquired, are pending close, or have shut down. Each deal removes a company from the board permanently. By the time most banks and TradFi institutions are ready to transact, several more targets will be off the market.

Already Acquired or No Longer Independent
Company Buyer Status
BridgeStripeClosed 2024
BitstampRobinhoodClosed 2025
DeribitCoinbaseClosed 2025
Hidden RoadRippleClosed 2025
GTreasuryRippleClosed 2025
RailRippleClosed 2025
SimplexNuveiAcquired
WyreShut down 2023
Baanx + MonavateExodusPending H1 2026
CoinmePolygonPending Q2 2026
SequencePolygonClosed Jan 2026
Still Independent (Potential Targets)
Company Licenses Notes
MoonPayMultiple jurisdictionsValued at $3.4B (2021); AI agent infra
TransakMultipleIndependent on-ramp provider
Mercuryo300+ partnershipsProfitable; only raised $10.5M
Alchemy PayFiat-crypto gatewayPublic token (ACH)
UtorgEuropean focusRaising a significant round
RedotPayHong KongConsidering $1B IPO at $4B+
BitGoUS, institutional custodyIPO'd Jan 2026; down 40%
"We've hit 162 people. We've gone pretty deep and screened a lot."
Investment banker, January 2026

The buyer mix has surprised even the bankers running the processes. In one active sell-side engagement, crypto-native companies have shown less interest than expected, while traditional financial institutions, including a major derivatives exchange, have been among the most engaged.[24] The demand side is broader than anyone predicted. The supply side is finite and shrinking.

"That know-how and that expertise of someone who's done this, who's made those mistakes, is so valuable. I wouldn't achieve it by just partnering."
Cross-border payments executive, January 2026

Every buyer faces the same math. Six buyer categories are converging on a shrinking universe of qualified targets. Some will IPO (RedotPay is considering a $1 billion listing). Some will be acquired before the end of 2026. The scramble has started, but most of the demand is still forming. The companies that move now choose from a menu. The companies that wait until the wave fully arrives will take what's left.

Section V

The Build-vs-Buy Calculus

The debate is over. Multiple buyers, across every category, have independently walked through the same analysis and arrived at the same conclusion: building crypto infrastructure from scratch takes 18-30 months, costs more than acquiring it, and delivers less than what is available on the market today.

"When we started out, it was actually a very strong buy. Then we discovered very quickly that the perfect acquisition target doesn't exist. So we pivoted to rent. But then we realized that expertise and know-how cannot be rented. There are very few human beings who are equally proficient at fiat and digital assets."
Cross-border payments executive, January 2026

The bottleneck is licensing. A MiCA CASP license takes 9-18 months. An FCA crypto registration takes 6-12 months and has a notoriously high rejection rate. US money transmitter licenses require 3-9 months per state, and you need 45-50 for full coverage. Stack these sequentially, add 12-18 months for production-grade platform development, and the composite critical path reaches 18-30 months before first multi-country launch.

Licensing Timelines by Jurisdiction
License Jurisdiction Timeline Key Constraint
MiCA CASP EU (27 states) 9-18 months 40-80 authorized as of Feb 2026; 50+ applications revoked
FCA Crypto Registration UK 6-12 months High rejection rate; estimated $30M+ total compliance cost
US MTLs (full coverage) US (50 states) 3-9 months/state $100K+ per state; need 45-50 for coverage
MAS License Singapore 12-18 months Highly selective
MiCA deadline EU July 1, 2026 Firms without authorization excluded from EU market

The operational floor is equally daunting. Running an on/off-ramp business carries a fixed cost of roughly $900,000 per month, a figure confirmed across multiple operators.[25] Below that threshold, compliance, fraud detection, payment rail maintenance, and customer support cannot function at production quality. This is not a market you enter experimentally.

"Even the largest banks are operating via reverse solicitation in Europe because they don't have MiCA CASP licenses yet."
Industry participant, January 2026

Margin compression accelerates the urgency. OTC crypto volumes doubled in 2025. Stablecoin-based OTC transactions grew 147%. Spreads have compressed to 0.1-0.5%, making standalone on-ramping unprofitable as a business model.[26] Fireblocks processed over $200 billion in stablecoin transactions per month in 2025, a 300% year-over-year increase.[27] The companies that survive are the ones that bundle: licensing, technology, compliance, and distribution in a single integrated stack.

"If your only product or service is on-ramping, you're going to lose because you won't be able to compete. You need to offer something more."
Corporate development executive, February 2026

The implication for buyers is straightforward. You cannot build the licensing moat fast enough. You cannot hire the talent (because there are "very few human beings equally proficient at fiat and digital assets"). And you cannot afford to wait, because every quarter of internal development is a quarter where competitors who acquired are capturing users and locking in distribution partnerships.

Section VI

The Window

Six catalysts will reshape the crypto infrastructure market in the next 12 months. Each one accelerates the consolidation. Together, they define a window that is closing faster than the market appreciates.

  1. 01 MiCA enforcement (July 1, 2026). Firms without CASP authorization will be excluded from the EU market. Over 50 applications have already been revoked. For any buyer targeting Europe, this creates a hard deadline to acquire licensed capability.[10]
  2. 02 Meta's stablecoin rollout (H2 2026). Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp will integrate stablecoin payments through Stripe's Bridge infrastructure. This is potentially the largest consumer-facing stablecoin deployment ever, reaching billions of users.[28]
  3. 03 CLARITY Act (expected H1 2026). Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse gives an 80% chance of passing by April. This would establish the broader US digital asset regulatory framework and unlock institutional capital currently waiting on the sidelines.
  4. 04 Circle at scale. $75.3 billion USDC in circulation, growing 72% year-over-year. Circle's stock surged 35% on Q4 2025 earnings. USDC is gaining share from USDT. A public stablecoin issuer growing at this rate compresses the timeline for every competitor.[7]
  5. 05 Bear market acquisition window. Bitcoin is at roughly $67,000, down 47% from its $126,000 peak. BitGo has fallen 40% from its IPO price. Targets are cheaper today than they will be when the market recovers. Institutional investors confirm: 62% held or increased positions, and 70% view Bitcoin as undervalued.[29]
  6. 06 Ripple resumes buying (H2 2026). After spending $4 billion in 2025, Ripple paused acquisitions for integration. Their CEO has signaled: "The second half of the year we'll start maybe looking to be more acquisitive again."[30] When Ripple re-enters the market, pricing resets upward.
"They stopped a bunch of ongoing R&D projects, fired a bunch of people, and everybody that was left focused heavily on revenue-creating projects. Big boys from Wall Street basically audited them and said, there's clearly two or three things that cash this entire company. You should focus on those. As you prepare for an exit."
Crypto infrastructure CEO, on a major wallet company's restructuring, February 2026
The Cost of Waiting
Bridge: $1.1B in October 2024. Worth multiples today. Stripe's Bridge grew 10x the year it was acquired and quadrupled again after close. The asset Stripe bought for $1.1 billion would sell for several times that today. Early movers in crypto infrastructure M&A have captured outsized returns.
Circle: IPO'd at $31. Immediately traded at $83. A 168% day-one gain. If you wanted Circle's stablecoin issuance capability, the price tripled in six months. The cost of evaluating rather than acting is compounding with every quarter.
2024 buyers are in pole position. 2026 buyers are paying more. 2027 buyers take what's left. Companies that moved in 2024 (Stripe) secured generational assets. Companies moving now (Klarna, Polygon, Interactive Brokers) are paying premiums. Companies that wait until 2027 will be choosing from a market of 3-5 remaining targets, with every other buyer category competing for the same shrinking pool.

Citi projects the stablecoin market will reach $1.9 trillion to $4.0 trillion by 2030.[12] The infrastructure that processes, settles, and enables those trillions in transactions is being divided up now. The companies that move in 2026 will be early. The companies that move in 2027 will be on time. The companies that wait until 2028 will discover that the market they needed to enter was divided up while they were still getting internal approval.

The room is small. The door is open. It will not stay open long.

Szymon Sypniewicz has spent the past 18 months in direct conversation with 35+ companies actively building, buying, or evaluating crypto infrastructure. This report draws on public data, executive statements, and anonymized observations from those conversations.
Sources
Market Data
[1] CryptoSlate, "Stablecoins surpass Visa and Mastercard with $27.6 trillion transfer volume in 2024." cryptoslate.com
[2] CoinLedger, Visual Capitalist. Stablecoin settlement volume reached approximately $33 trillion in 2025.
[3] Visual Capitalist. November 2025 stablecoin daily volume exceeded $95 billion versus Visa's estimated $85 billion.
[4] The Defiant, "B2B Stablecoin Payments Grew Over 730% YoY in 2025." thedefiant.io
[5] Analytics Insight. Stripe's Bridge quadrupled volume in 2025, reaching approximately $400 billion in total throughput.
[6] CoinDesk, "Tether's Gold Holdings Top $17 Billion as Net Profits Surpassed $10 Billion for 2025." coindesk.com
[7] Bloomberg, "Circle's Shares Surge After Profit, Revenue Top Estimates." bloomberg.com
[8] Yahoo Finance, CoinDesk. PayPal PYUSD market cap growth September-December 2025.
Regulatory
[9] White House, "Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Signs GENIUS Act Into Law." whitehouse.gov
[10] ESMA, "Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA)." esma.europa.eu
[11] CoinDesk, "Stripe's Stablecoin Firm Bridge Wins Initial Approval of National Bank Trust Charter." coindesk.com
Deal Data
[12] Citi GPS, "Stablecoins: 2030." citigroup.com
[13] Fortune, "Stripe Announces $1.1 Billion Acquisition of Stablecoin Start-Up Bridge." fortune.com
[14] TechCrunch, "Stripe Is Reportedly Eyeing Deal to Buy Some or All of PayPal." techcrunch.com
[15] Ripple Press, "Ripple to Acquire Hidden Road." ripple.com
[16] BusinessWire, "Ripple to Acquire Rail for $200M." businesswire.com
[17] CoinDesk, "Coinbase/Deribit Acquisition." coindesk.com
[18] Industry intelligence. Valuation multiples from anonymized industry conversations, January-February 2026.
Executive Statements
[19] PYMNTS, "Visa CEO Sees AI and Stablecoins Powering Tomorrow's Digital Payments." pymnts.com
[20] CoinDesk, "Goldman Sachs Sees Crypto, Tokenization and Prediction Markets as Growth Areas." coindesk.com
[21] Klarna Investors, "Klarna Launches KlarnaUSD." klarna.com
[22] Fortune, "Polygon Labs Acquisition of Coinme and Sequence." fortune.com
[23] CoinDesk / KPMG, "Stablecoins Can Cut Cross-Border Payments Cost by 99%." coindesk.com
Industry Conversations
[24] Anonymized. Industry observations from investment banking and advisory contexts, January-February 2026.
[25] Board-level strategy discussion. $900,000/month fixed cost floor confirmed across multiple on/off-ramp operators.
[26] Industry reports. OTC crypto volumes doubled in 2025; stablecoin-based OTC transactions up 147%. Spreads at 0.1-0.5%.
[27] Fireblocks, "Processed $200B+ in stablecoin transactions per month in 2025." 300% year-over-year increase.
Breaking News (February 2026)
[28] CoinDesk, "Mark Zuckerberg's Meta Is Planning Stablecoin Comeback." coindesk.com
[29] CNBC, "Bitcoin Falls to Nearly $64,000 as 2026 Crypto Woes Continue." cnbc.com
[30] DL News, "Ripple Acquisitions to Slow in 2026, CEO Says." dlnews.com